Later, in the 1888 presidential election, Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison used maps that coded blue for the Republicans, the color perceived to represent the Union and "Lincoln's Party", and red for the Democrats. Similarly, one state south, 56.45 percent of Oregon voters chose Joe Biden in 2020 compared to just 40.37 percent for Donald Trump. Crime rate U.S. 2020, by state. The only deviations from the preexisting red-blue paradigm were all in Obama's favor. I just got off the phone with the City Commissioners office in Philadelphia, and they told me that all the machines that process mail ballots are up and running and that things are going smoothly. Nearly every town, city and patch of farmland in the country is "purple", a mixture of people, each of whose own political preferences can vary. The answer, of course, is yes they are both of those. [5] However, at that time, a maker of widely-sold maps accompanied them with blue pencils in order to mark Confederate force movements, while red was for the union.[6]. All Rights Reserved. During Biden's final stop in the state yesterday at a drive-in rally in Pittsburgh, following his barnstorm of the state with his running mate Kamala Harris and their spouses, he said for the zillionth time that he doesn't want to banfracking. With all eyes on Georgia and the upcoming Senate runoffs slated for Jan. 5, 2021, Emory College Dean Michael A. Elliott hosted a panel discussion Dec. 2 examining Georgia's new swing-state status and future role in American politics from business, marketing . [24] A juxtaposition of differing colors and shades can result in contrast misperceptions. Earlier this year, one election official said the rule could result in upwards of 100,000 mail-in ballots being thrown out. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. This is still a substantial difference from the period 1960 to 1980 when every state, save for Arizona, voted for each party at least once. To win in 2016, Donald Trump broke through some of the 'blue wall' of 242 electoral votes that had voted Democratic in each presidential election since at least 1992. This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about how the vote will report this year. The elections in Arkansas as well as West Virginia in 2004 were won by Republican President George W. Bush, but Democrats at the time held all four U.S. Senate seats and majorities of elected executive officeholders in those states, including the governorship of the latter. Not one! The Pennsylvania Senate, on the other hand, has been under consistent Republican control for decades. Holly My point in mentioning Montgomery County and Philly is that if those places aren't reporting all their votes, the red mirage scenario is still very much in place if the president chose thatroute. FiveThirtyEight's forecast currently expects these states to step slightly to the left in 2020, but there's a lot of uncertainty here, especially in a state like Maine where the error bars. Success! How a life-sized Biden could be a larger-than-life president, Three reasons Joe Biden flipped the Midwest, 284,931 cast by those registered as no affiliation/third party/other, About 548,000 mail-in ballots have not been returned as of now but if they are postmarked by Election Day (or there is not a "preponderance of evidence" they were sent after) and received within three days, the state Supreme Court said they must be counted. The most significant difference between blue and red states occurred from late June to early August. On August 5, the risk of death in red states was 1.8 times higher than in blue. Biden rebuilt the "blue wall" and expanded the map Rust Belt states have been the base of Democrats' electoral map for a generation, but along with winning them back, Biden also expanded the. Election results provided by the Associated Press. To take one random anecdote, my dad claimed there was a four-hour line in one polling place in my home county, York (a very conservativearea). And this basic arithmetic is in place even before voters factor in the disgraceful fact that VP candidate Kamala Harris is a self-admitted BLM-backed Marxist. While the blue states represented a comparatively small geographic area, they contained large populations, which made President Bush's national endorsement less than the redblue map would seem to indicate. Archie Tse, The New York Times graphics editor who made the choice when the Times published its first color presidential election map in 2000, provided a nonpolitical rationale for retaining the redRepublican link, explaining that "Both 'Republican' and 'red' start with the letter 'R. Explained! Pennsylvania was one of the most closely watched states throughout the 2020 election. If we do not know the outcome of the election tonight, is he cool, or does he try to claim victoryregardless? Light bulbs on each state changed from undecided white to Republican . [24] Large areas of color appear more saturated than small areas of the same color. Would Pennsylvania make a better early primary state. The key swing region is the. The 2004 election showed two of these three states to be true to the presidential preferences of their respective regions, creating a greater regional separation; thus, an argument that the country was more divided from the 2000 election. While some red counties shifted to the left, larger margins of victory than Clinton in already-blue countieswas the primary force thatdrove Biden to victory. [1] Examining patterns within states reveals that the reversal of the two parties' geographic bases has happened at the state level, but it is more complicated locally, with urban-rural divides associated with many of the largest changes.[2]. Mitchell Thorson, Kevin Crowe, Dian Zhang, and Dan Keemahill contributed to this report. Sorry Marc. However, there are pros and cons to both classified and unclassified choropleth maps. Purple states are also often referred to as "battleground" states. These are general election results for the years listed. I think it's the state to watch. All Rights Reserved. By household income, Obama got a majority of households with less than $50,000 in annual income. These maps give extra visual weight to larger areal units, whether by county or state. Starting with the 2000 United States presidential election, the terms "red state" and "blue state" have referred to U.S. states whose voters vote predominantly for one party the Republican Party in red states and the Democratic Party in blue states in presidential and other statewide elections. Some precincts reported mechanical problems or ran out of supplies. As a result, the blue counties tend to be the smaller ones so blue is visually less represented than it should be based on vote totals. The state's 20 electoral votes could be pivotal in the 2020 race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee alluded to the color scheme when it launched a national Red to Blue Program in 2006. [21][22] Another problem relates to data classification. The exceptions were New Mexico (Al Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004), Iowa (Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004), and New Hampshire (Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004). Which parts of Pennsylvania are red and blue -- or something in between? Since the 1984 election, CBS has used the opposite scheme: blue for Democrats, red for Republicans. Also, theres a run off in Georgia so you may have two strikes incorrect. Biden won by larger margins than Clinton in every county that voted for her except for Philadelphia, where he won by about 4,000 fewer votes than Democrats had in 2016. The following list is tabled from the last Presidential Election 2020. All five of the aforementioned states were decided by 1% or less in the year (2016 or 2020) they came off this map. A new, lower flat income tax rate will take effect in 2023. President-elect Joe Biden flipped five states from red to blue this election Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania and is expected to flip Georgia, where he leads Trump. But the cultural wounds cut the deepest, and are the most likely to drive working-class people to look at the coastal elites and say: "That. The presidential primary contests are usually decided before Pennsylvania holds its primary, which is on Tuesday, April 26, this year. The colors red and blue are also featured on the United States flag. Data: MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse through 2018; 270toWin research. Richard C. Young is the editor of Young's World Money Forecast, and a contributing editor to both Richardcyoung.com and Youngresearch.com. The 2020 election has caused anxiety among Americans to remain high as some states are still counting ballots. Each state has one Senator in two of the three classes. Report that just went out from the Pennsylvania Election Protection Coalition on issues today in the state: "Among the issues: Several polling places opened late. It further claims that from 1976 to 2004, in an attempt to avoid favoritism in color-coding, the broadcast networks standardized the convention of alternating every four years between blue and red the color used for the incumbent president's party. Georgia: Red, blue or purple? Before you read the Blue States and the Red States list, lets find out how the naming of a state with color started! This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about how the vote will report this year. I think most of these states that we have either red or blue are going to be up for grabs. How much does fracking register as an issue across the state in southeastern PA, in Philly and itssuburbs? The "Democratic blue" and "Republican red" color scheme is now part of the lexicon of American journalism. The four "mega-states" have established rival and increasingly polarized visions of state government-one blue, the other red. More than a . )Voters spoiled mail-in ballots at high rates, and some poll workers were confused about how to process those ballots. If a state is not a red state or a blue state, it might be a swing state . The state went to Trump in 2016, but this time around, it flipped to Biden by a narrow margin. What are red and blue states? 44% of Americans in the South favored secession, with Republican support at 66%; while Democratic support was 47% in the Pacific states.[50][51][52]. The county with the most lopsided voter registration margin is Philadelphia, which is 78 percent Democrat, 11 percent Republican and 11 percent other. All 50 States of the United States of America contain both Democratic and Republican voters but only Blue or Red colors appear on the electoral map because of the winner-take-all system used by most states in the Electoral College. The look of a map can vary significantly depending on the classification choices. Dane County is home to Madison, the second-largest city in Wisconsin. Although many red states and blue states stay in the same category for long periods, they may also switch from blue to red or from red to blue over time. Heres why Pennsylvania is a Red State to the core. It is 62 percent Republican, 25 percent Democrat and 13 percent other. Pennsylvania has an middling number of people with four-year college degrees. "Amerika whlt Spiegel Online Nachrichten", "The Urban Archipelago: It's the Cities, Stupid", Choosing colors based on incumbent vs. challenger victory from November, 2004, The Honky Tonk Gap: Country Music, Red State Identity, and the Election of 2004, "Re-imagining the Red States: New Directions for Southern Studies. Eight of the states hardest hit by the coronavirusNew Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts. Biden did so by rebuilding the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to NBC News projections. Last election, Pennsylvania was a red state. A third possibility is that blue states tend to have higher urban density, which in theory could make spreading of the virus easier. More married men voted for McCain, but more single men voted for Obama. Yet, because of just two densely packed urban clusters, the popular vote ended Trump 2,970,733 / Clinton 2,926,441. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and one district in Maine voted Republican in 2016. What determines a state's "color"? Pennsylvania's CPVI is R+2. Is Your Good for Nothing Cash Doing Anything with Its Life? By Allan James Vestal, Andrew Briz, Annette Choi, Beatrice Jin, Andrew McGill and Lily Mihalik. Data: Wikipedia through 2018; 270toWin research. While Hillary Clinton dominated in Philadelphia, winning 82%, she only took a 475,000-vote edge out of the city, compared Barack Obamas 492,000 vote advantage in 2012. Cartograms developed by Gastner, Shalizi, and Newman at the University of Michigan provide another way to depict election results,[28] which change from a red-blue paradigm to one of shades of purple.[29]. If you're curious how long the streak is for each state, visit our 'Same Since' Electoral Map Timeline. Charlie We haven't heard yet from Allegheny County, which is also a top source of Democratic votes. Error! Charlie Many voters in Philly and the suburbs don't like fracking and want to ban it. Robert Vanderbei at Princeton University made the first Purple America map after the 2000 presidential election. [1] According to The Washington Post, journalist Tim Russert invented these terms during his televised coverage of the 2000 United States presidential election. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. Catholic and Protestant Christians were more likely to vote for McCain than for Obama, whereas voters of other faiths, as well as secular atheist and agnostic voters, predominantly favored Obama. Many argue that assigning partisanship to states is only really useful as it pertains to the Electoral College, as well as (more recently) the Senate, primarily a winner-take-all system of elections (with the exceptions of Nebraska and Maine). However, because of the large geographical size of many states in the Central and Southern United States, the color-coded map appeared to show great support for Bush and the Republicans with smaller outliers of Democratic support on the coasts and near the Great Lakes.[32]. Telling tweet from election law expert Rick Hasen: "Biggest surprise of the election watch for me so far: Florida's election administration doesn't make my top 3 of places I'm worried about. This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about . They think even if it moved a few votes it could be enough to win thestate. Electoral votes invalidated. Election maps often use a two-class color scheme (red and blue), which results in a map that is easy to read but is very generalized. Red states vs. blue states. The terms "red state" and "blue state" have been in familiar lexicon since the 2000 US presidential election. These states often had more regulations and higher taxes. Neither party national committee has officially accepted these color designations, though informal use by each party is becoming common. He won 56 percent to Trump's 43. Again competitive in 2020, Joe Biden won by 1.2%.While still an important prize, with 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania, like many industrial northern states, has seen population migrate away in recent decades. Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. The state has 20 electoral votes at stake in the presidential race. Wisconsin is a swing, or purple, state. Losing Pa would seem to require picking up something bigelsewhere. Similarly, Tennessee was won by Bush in both 2000 and 2004, but going into 2004, its governor was a Democrat and both chambers of the state legislature were controlled by Democrats as well. Partly as a result of this eventual and near-universal color-coding, the terms "red states" and "blue states" entered popular use in the weeks after the 2000 presidential election. But what they didn't realize was that Trump was surging in rural parts of the state and flipping some swing counties like the ones mentionedabove. But I've got news for them, too. Support local journalism. [58], The choice of colors in this divide may appear counter-intuitive to non-American observers, as in most countries, red is associated with socialist, communist, or social democratic parties, while blue is associated with conservative parties. With the election year underway, we put together a state map that lays out the political landscape, based on February voter registration figures from the Pennsylvania Department of State. A large county or state in area may have fewer voters than a small one in area, for example. During the 2016 presidential election, two districts (the first and second) gave Clinton over 80% and 90% of the vote. That year, the crime rate was 3,620.15 crimes per . Two counties flipped from red to blue: Erie, in Pennsylvania's northwestern corner, and Northampton, in eastern Pennsylvania. With the caveat that we still know very, very little about Pennsylvania, let's zoom in on one county: Washington County, which is in the pro-Trump western part of the state. We identify swing states as. Will Israel Strike Before Iran Buys Russian S-400 Air Defense Systems. Biden wants to cut his losses in those places (and maybe even flip a county here or there), so that's why you see him reiterate again and again that he doesn't want to ban fracking. 30,000+ mail ballots a teeny tiny fraction of the 2.5 million received as of this morning in the state were just reported in Pennsylvania. Youve Answered Lifes Questions. Christopher On the expectation-setting remarked upon earlier from the Biden campaign about Florida, what are we to make of the fact that the campaign told me this a few days ago about Pennsylvania that "we can win without Pennsylvania," though they didn't think they'd needto? [33] The polarization has been present for only four close elections (2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020). Eight of the districts gave Trump 58% or higher. [19] Some Republicans argue the GOP should retain its historic association with blue, since most center-right parties worldwide are associated with blue. The last two elections have seen five states and a district in Maine break their same party streaks. As of February 2023, California had the most mass shootings in the United States, with 25 total shootings since 1982. Like around the country, we're seeing. Differing shades of red and blue compound this effect.[25]. The Keystone State has participated in all 59 presidential elections through 2020. Live results and analysis from the Jan. 5 Senaterunoffs, White House Correspondent & Associate Editor. Which are solidly blue counties and red counties? One thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and North Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. Joe Biden won back Pennsylvania for Democrats in the 2020 election after President Donald Trump carried the state in 2016. Some maps use more classes, such as shades of red and blue to indicate the degree of election victory. So, assuming NYT's 98%+ reporting estimate is correct, Trump got more raw votes out of Washington County like he wanted quite a bit more. While they may have voted for Biden in 2020, they did so by margins smaller than his. Its governor is Democratic, its Senate is both Republican and Democratic, and its House balance is also evenly split between the two parties. The. A 2021 poll found that 52% of Trump voters and 41% of Biden voters support partitioning the United States into multiple countries based on political party lines. Vice versa for Montana. Use arrow keys to move around the map. A measuring device or measuring instrument is a device to measure a physical quantity or degree of something in our lives every day. Over the last decade, there has been a notable increase in Latinos' share of the overall population in Arizona, up from 25 to 31 percent since 2000. In 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia and Arizona, states that had last voted Democratic in 1992 and 1996, respectively. The Blue States and the Red States are referred to as states of the U.S. whose voters predominantly choose either the Democratic Party (Blue) or Republican Party (Red) for Presidential and Senatorial Candidates. A lengthy post-Election court battle is the scenario Biden's camp has so fiercely tried to avoid by expanding their map to 17states. While all of these issues are concerning, none of them are too far out of the ordinary for issues that arise during any normal election year and this year was far from normal, with many expecting the worst in terms of potential disruptions and possibleconflict.". '"[20], There are several problems in creating and interpreting election maps. Maps of this type are termed choropleth maps, which have several well-known problems that can result in interpretation bias. Throughout much of this campaign cycle, Pennsylvania has been considered a hotly contested toss-up, and it has been the focus of several mail voting-related lawsuits.
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