They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . Gerald Ford 1974-77. The American Independent is the No. 56% of independent voters in . Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. In other words, compared with a similar low point in the previous election cycle, Johnson is doing better with his best groups and worse with his worst groups. Combining the four surveys that Marquette has done over the past nine months, 35% of registered voters view Johnson favorably and 44% view him unfavorably a net rating of minus 9. I'm just trying to convey the truth. Compared with Johnsons previous low point in late 2015 and early 2016, the senator has increased his popularity with groups that lean Republican, lean to the right and were already supportive. Eli Lilly CEO announces it will cap out-of-pocket costs for its insulin at $35, GOP bill would fund security grants for 'pregnancy centers' only if they oppose abortion, House Republicans vote for repeal of climate-related investment regulations, Rep. James Comer criticizes U.S. attorney for not investigating Biden's dead son, House GOP members interrogate Biden administration efforts to address environmental racism, Fact check: No, the Biden administration is not trying to ban gas stoves. All rights reserved. Wisconsin Democrats are aiming to flip Ron Johnson's seat blue in November's midterm race, . Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. But PARS reveals why the handicappers arent so sure. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll (The Hill), Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks (NBC News), 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks (CNN). That poll . Mandela Barnes, by five points (51% to 46%) in the state's U.S. Senate race. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. Condition: --. Help assure the future of citys fastest growing publication. The WOW counties have been growing less Republican, and the recent decline in Johnsons ratings in this region is striking. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Partisan types. Early polling indicates a tight race. The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. Ditch the ads, get free stuff. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. 2022 Governors Elections (39) Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Independent Sens. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. The poll, whose . The poll is hardly an outlier. Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. Results from the most recent update. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. Johnson won his bid for a second term that year by 3 points over Democrat Russ Feingold. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is somewhere in the middle, with a PARG of +6. All rights reserved. Hi. When the dates . 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. Those is Tim. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator Ron Johnson's . What is Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Daniel Kelly's record on abortion? Several conservatives involved in the state argued that Johnson casting himself as foe of Biden and the national Democratic brand could help shore up his intraparty standing. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. Follow him on Twitter @jeisrael. Some 95% of Democrats in the poll support Barnes over Johnson, the same as in June, while 92% of Republicans favor Johnson to Barnes, up slightly from 89% two months ago, according to the poll of 811 Wisconsin registered voters conducted between August 10-15. Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. A Morning Consult poll earlier this year had Johnson's approval rating at 36 percent. Buy It Now. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. Since 2019, his net favorability rating in the WOW counties has dropped from an average of plus 41 to plus-8 in the last four Marquette polls combined. Almost 40% of voters six years ago didnt know Johnson or had no opinion of him, compared with around20% today. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (among other news outlets) is reporting that two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has decided to run and will make his formal announcement very soon: Johnson . With a PARG of +13, Democratic Gov. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they wont be able to get much done if their party doesnt also win the Senate. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. A. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are all rated Toss-ups, while Sen. Maggie Hassan 's race in New Hampshire is . RCP House Ratings, Map. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Have questions? We're pretty sure you're a member and you're definitely not signed in. Lt. Gov. The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. But hes got to execute on a winning message, and if we look at the numbers and the data, we know he hasnt been executing on a winning message.. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Ron Johnson and His Wife Jane Johnson. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs whether to run again, his embrace of Trump's anti-democratic campaign to overturn the election results already has angered some mainstream Republican allies, and is poised As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. But the electorate has hardened around him. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM at the best online prices at eBay! Richard Nixon 1969-74. More money is expected to flow into the race as the candidates barrel toward the November general election. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year. I'm not a polarizing figure at all. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Johnsons rhetoric on these issues has attracted a great deal of attention and controversy. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. But a lot has changed in the last few months. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. Wikler said every Democratic candidate has a slightly different path to victory and touted Democrats successful efforts to reduce Republican margins in the states deep red areas, swing the suburbs and increase the partys standing in urban communities. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson - who aligned with Trump's election challenge publicly while reportedly admitting privately that Biden won - starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings (61 percent) among GOP voters. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. Johnson (Republican Party) ran for re-election to the U.S. Senate to represent Wisconsin.He won in the general election on November 8, 2022.. Johnson was first elected to the Senate in 2010 when he defeated incumbent Sen. Russ . Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. But he also stood to benefit from a difficult political climate for Democrats, reflected in President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. 772 days 4 . Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. January 25, 2022 at 12:01 am ET. In . Doing this for the Senate, we get the following table of senators with the best and worst statewide brands: Senators net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. The . 2023 CNBC LLC. John F. Kennedy 1961-63. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Hey NieWiederKrieg, I think a part of your brain must be dead. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. That suggests she has a bit of crossover appeal, but that her fate is still closely tied to partisanship. You must be an Urban Milwaukee member to leave a comment. This is up from 80% a year ago, even though 87% of respondents had deployed anti-virus software. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). In that sense, I think we can be quite confident the decline is real, Franklin said. Need to report an error? Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of . The state is closely divided in its partisan affiliation- 29% say they're Democrats, 31% say they're Republicans, and 39% say they're [] By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. Share: Listen Download. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. All Rights Reserved. In a June 2022 poll, 37% of voters viewed the senator favorably and 46% viewed . Voicemail to me on election night 18 yrs. There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. Partisan Lean (5). Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . The gap between how Republicans and Democrats view him was large then, but its even larger now. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had not held office prior to his election to the Senate, being a CEO for a plastics and manufacturing company beforehand. A trio of red-state Democrats Kentuckys Andy Beshear, Kansass Laura Kelly and Louisianas John Bel Edwards all have PARGs between +31 and +51 as well. The fact that Johnsons negatives have spiked among Democrats and liberals may not be a big deal, since these are voters very unlikely to support him anyway. The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. ", He also has angered Wisconsin workers by refusing to even try to bring home good jobs. The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. 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His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Meanwhile, Republican U.S. The January 6 hearings are a dog and pony show They should be holding the Jeffrey Epstein Videotaped Every US Congressman that Visited Epstein Pedophile Island and then Epstein Blackmailed Them hearings Or how about the Joe Biden Staged a Coup in Kiev in 2014, Overthrew the Democratically Elected Government of Ukraine, Then Murdered Over 15,000 Russian Speaking Ukraine Civilians hearings. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. Quantity: Last One. Biden's approval rating rises to 45% from 36% in July. Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. Kelly, on the other hand, does have a brand distinct from the national Democratic Party, but its an open question whether she can get enough Kansas Republicans who approve of her to take the extra step and vote for her as well. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term. Johnsons name recognition is also significantly higher today than it was back then. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. After about a three-year hiatus, FiveThirtyEights Popularity Above Replacement Senator and Popularity Above Replacement Governor ratings are back! But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then.